|
uConclusions
uScientific
methods
uFigures
1-3
uNewtonian/Darwinian
views
uClimate
uExternal
mechanisms
uFigures
4-12
uItemization
uComments
uInternal
mechanisms
uItemization
uSubsurface
uFigures
13-16
uWhy
a geoscientist
uBasin
systems
uAtmosphere
uFigures
17-25
uClimate
reconstruction
uHydrosphere
uFigures
26-30
uRole
of water
uIsotopic
indicators
uFigures
31-35
uIce
age
uClimate
change & humans
uFigures
37-44
uLithosphere
uClimatology
uCoupled
behavior
uFuture
research
uCCSP
uFigures
47-49
uGCEP
uFigures
50-55
uGreen
market
uFigures
56-67
uGeoscientist’s
view
uSummary
uFigure
58
uReferences
uConclusions
uScientific
methods
uFigures
1-3
uNewtonian/Darwinian
views
uClimate
uExternal
mechanisms
uFigures
4-12
uItemization
uComments
uInternal
mechanisms
uItemization
uSubsurface
uFigures
13-16
uWhy
a geoscientist
uBasin
systems
uAtmosphere
uFigures
17-25
uClimate
reconstruction
uHydrosphere
uFigures
26-30
uRole
of water
uIsotopic
indicators
uFigures
31-35
uIce
age
uClimate
change & humans
uFigures
37-44
uLithosphere
uClimatology
uCoupled
behavior
uFuture
research
uCCSP
uFigures
47-49
uGCEP
uFigures
50-55
uGreen
market
uFigures
56-67
uGeoscientist’s
view
uSummary
uFigure
58
uReferences
uConclusions
uScientific
methods
uFigures
1-3
uNewtonian/Darwinian
views
uClimate
uExternal
mechanisms
uFigures
4-12
uItemization
uComments
uInternal
mechanisms
uItemization
uSubsurface
uFigures
13-16
uWhy
a geoscientist
uBasin
systems
uAtmosphere
uFigures
17-25
uClimate
reconstruction
uHydrosphere
uFigures
26-30
uRole
of water
uIsotopic
indicators
uFigures
31-35
uIce
age
uClimate
change & humans
uFigures
37-44
uLithosphere
uClimatology
uCoupled
behavior
uFuture
research
uCCSP
uFigures
47-49
uGCEP
uFigures
50-55
uGreen
market
uFigures
56-67
uGeoscientist’s
view
uSummary
uFigure
58
uReferences
uConclusions
uScientific
methods
uFigures
1-3
uNewtonian/Darwinian
views
uClimate
uExternal
mechanisms
uFigures
4-12
uItemization
uComments
uInternal
mechanisms
uItemization
uSubsurface
uFigures
13-16
uWhy
a geoscientist
uBasin
systems
uAtmosphere
uFigures
17-25
uClimate
reconstruction
uHydrosphere
uFigures
26-30
uRole
of water
uIsotopic
indicators
uFigures
31-35
uIce
age
uClimate
change & humans
uFigures
37-44
uLithosphere
uClimatology
uCoupled
behavior
uFuture
research
uCCSP
uFigures
47-49
uGCEP
uFigures
50-55
uGreen
market
uFigures
56-67
uGeoscientist’s
view
uSummary
uFigure
58
uReferences
uConclusions
uScientific
methods
uFigures
1-3
uNewtonian/Darwinian
views
uClimate
uExternal
mechanisms
uFigures
4-12
uItemization
uComments
uInternal
mechanisms
uItemization
uSubsurface
uFigures
13-16
uWhy
a geoscientist
uBasin
systems
uAtmosphere
uFigures
17-25
uClimate
reconstruction
uHydrosphere
uFigures
26-30
uRole
of water
uIsotopic
indicators
uFigures
31-35
uIce
age
uClimate
change & humans
uFigures
37-44
uLithosphere
uClimatology
uCoupled
behavior
uFuture
research
uCCSP
uFigures
47-49
uGCEP
uFigures
50-55
uGreen
market
uFigures
56-67
uGeoscientist’s
view
uSummary
uFigure
58
uReferences
uConclusions
uScientific
methods
uFigures
1-3
uNewtonian/Darwinian
views
uClimate
uExternal
mechanisms
uFigures
4-12
uItemization
uComments
uInternal
mechanisms
uItemization
uSubsurface
uFigures
13-16
uWhy
a geoscientist
uBasin
systems
uAtmosphere
uFigures
17-25
uClimate
reconstruction
uHydrosphere
uFigures
26-30
uRole
of water
uIsotopic
indicators
uFigures
31-35
uIce
age
uClimate
change & humans
uFigures
37-44
uLithosphere
uClimatology
uCoupled
behavior
uFuture
research
uCCSP
uFigures
47-49
uGCEP
uFigures
50-55
uGreen
market
uFigures
56-67
uGeoscientist’s
view
uSummary
uFigure
58
uReferences
uConclusions
uScientific
methods
uFigures
1-3
uNewtonian/Darwinian
views
uClimate
uExternal
mechanisms
uFigures
4-12
uItemization
uComments
uInternal
mechanisms
uItemization
uSubsurface
uFigures
13-16
uWhy
a geoscientist
uBasin
systems
uAtmosphere
uFigures
17-25
uClimate
reconstruction
uHydrosphere
uFigures
26-30
uRole
of water
uIsotopic
indicators
uFigures
31-35
uIce
age
uClimate
change & humans
uFigures
37-44
uLithosphere
uClimatology
uCoupled
behavior
uFuture
research
uCCSP
uFigures
47-49
uGCEP
uFigures
50-55
uGreen
market
uFigures
56-67
uGeoscientist’s
view
uSummary
uFigure
58
uReferences
uConclusions
uScientific
methods
uFigures
1-3
uNewtonian/Darwinian
views
uClimate
uExternal
mechanisms
uFigures
4-12
uItemization
uComments
uInternal
mechanisms
uItemization
uSubsurface
uFigures
13-16
uWhy
a geoscientist
uBasin
systems
uAtmosphere
uFigures
17-25
uClimate
reconstruction
uHydrosphere
uFigures
26-30
uRole
of water
uIsotopic
indicators
uFigures
31-35
uIce
age
uClimate
change & humans
uFigures
37-44
uLithosphere
uClimatology
uCoupled
behavior
uFuture
research
uCCSP
uFigures
47-49
uGCEP
uFigures
50-55
uGreen
market
uFigures
56-67
uGeoscientist’s
view
uSummary
uFigure
58
uReferences
uConclusions
uScientific
methods
uFigures
1-3
uNewtonian/Darwinian
views
uClimate
uExternal
mechanisms
uFigures
4-12
uItemization
uComments
uInternal
mechanisms
uItemization
uSubsurface
uFigures
13-16
uWhy
a geoscientist
uBasin
systems
uAtmosphere
uFigures
17-25
uClimate
reconstruction
uHydrosphere
uFigures
26-30
uRole
of water
uIsotopic
indicators
uFigures
31-35
uIce
age
uClimate
change & humans
uFigures
37-44
uLithosphere
uClimatology
uCoupled
behavior
uFuture
research
uCCSP
uFigures
47-49
uGCEP
uFigures
50-55
uGreen
market
uFigures
56-67
uGeoscientist’s
view
uSummary
uFigure
58
uReferences
uConclusions
uScientific
methods
uFigures
1-3
uNewtonian/Darwinian
views
uClimate
uExternal
mechanisms
uFigures
4-12
uItemization
uComments
uInternal
mechanisms
uItemization
uSubsurface
uFigures
13-16
uWhy
a geoscientist
uBasin
systems
uAtmosphere
uFigures
17-25
uClimate
reconstruction
uHydrosphere
uFigures
26-30
uRole
of water
uIsotopic
indicators
uFigures
31-35
uIce
age
uClimate
change & humans
uFigures
37-44
uLithosphere
uClimatology
uCoupled
behavior
uFuture
research
uCCSP
uFigures
47-49
uGCEP
uFigures
50-55
uGreen
market
uFigures
56-67
uGeoscientist’s
view
uSummary
uFigure
58
uReferences
uConclusions
uScientific
methods
uFigures
1-3
uNewtonian/Darwinian
views
uClimate
uExternal
mechanisms
uFigures
4-12
uItemization
uComments
uInternal
mechanisms
uItemization
uSubsurface
uFigures
13-16
uWhy
a geoscientist
uBasin
systems
uAtmosphere
uFigures
17-25
uClimate
reconstruction
uHydrosphere
uFigures
26-30
uRole
of water
uIsotopic
indicators
uFigures
31-35
uIce
age
uClimate
change & humans
uFigures
37-44
uLithosphere
uClimatology
uCoupled
behavior
uFuture
research
uCCSP
uFigures
47-49
uGCEP
uFigures
50-55
uGreen
market
uFigures
56-67
uGeoscientist’s
view
uSummary
uFigure
58
uReferences
uConclusions
uScientific
methods
uFigures
1-3
uNewtonian/Darwinian
views
uClimate
uExternal
mechanisms
uFigures
4-12
uItemization
uComments
uInternal
mechanisms
uItemization
uSubsurface
uFigures
13-16
uWhy
a geoscientist
uBasin
systems
uAtmosphere
uFigures
17-25
uClimate
reconstruction
uHydrosphere
uFigures
26-30
uRole
of water
uIsotopic
indicators
uFigures
31-35
uIce
age
uClimate
change & humans
uFigures
37-44
uLithosphere
uClimatology
uCoupled
behavior
uFuture
research
uCCSP
uFigures
47-49
uGCEP
uFigures
50-55
uGreen
market
uFigures
56-67
uGeoscientist’s
view
uSummary
uFigure
58
uReferences
uConclusions
uScientific
methods
uFigures
1-3
uNewtonian/Darwinian
views
uClimate
uExternal
mechanisms
uFigures
4-12
uItemization
uComments
uInternal
mechanisms
uItemization
uSubsurface
uFigures
13-16
uWhy
a geoscientist
uBasin
systems
uAtmosphere
uFigures
17-25
uClimate
reconstruction
uHydrosphere
uFigures
26-30
uRole
of water
uIsotopic
indicators
uFigures
31-35
uIce
age
uClimate
change & humans
uFigures
37-44
uLithosphere
uClimatology
uCoupled
behavior
uFuture
research
uCCSP
uFigures
47-49
uGCEP
uFigures
50-55
uGreen
market
uFigures
56-67
uGeoscientist’s
view
uSummary
uFigure
58
uReferences
uConclusions
uScientific
methods
uFigures
1-3
uNewtonian/Darwinian
views
uClimate
uExternal
mechanisms
uFigures
4-12
uItemization
uComments
uInternal
mechanisms
uItemization
uSubsurface
uFigures
13-16
uWhy
a geoscientist
uBasin
systems
uAtmosphere
uFigures
17-25
uClimate
reconstruction
uHydrosphere
uFigures
26-30
uRole
of water
uIsotopic
indicators
uFigures
31-35
uIce
age
uClimate
change & humans
uFigures
37-44
uLithosphere
uClimatology
uCoupled
behavior
uFuture
research
uCCSP
uFigures
47-49
uGCEP
uFigures
50-55
uGreen
market
uFigures
56-67
uGeoscientist’s
view
uSummary
uFigure
58
uReferences
uConclusions
uScientific
methods
uFigures
1-3
uNewtonian/Darwinian
views
uClimate
uExternal
mechanisms
uFigures
4-12
uItemization
uComments
uInternal
mechanisms
uItemization
uSubsurface
uFigures
13-16
uWhy
a geoscientist
uBasin
systems
uAtmosphere
uFigures
17-25
uClimate
reconstruction
uHydrosphere
uFigures
26-30
uRole
of water
uIsotopic
indicators
uFigures
31-35
uIce
age
uClimate
change & humans
uFigures
37-44
uLithosphere
uClimatology
uCoupled
behavior
uFuture
research
uCCSP
uFigures
47-49
uGCEP
uFigures
50-55
uGreen
market
uFigures
56-67
uGeoscientist’s
view
uSummary
uFigure
58
uReferences
uConclusions
uScientific
methods
uFigures
1-3
uNewtonian/Darwinian
views
uClimate
uExternal
mechanisms
uFigures
4-12
uItemization
uComments
uInternal
mechanisms
uItemization
uSubsurface
uFigures
13-16
uWhy
a geoscientist
uBasin
systems
uAtmosphere
uFigures
17-25
uClimate
reconstruction
uHydrosphere
uFigures
26-30
uRole
of water
uIsotopic
indicators
uFigures
31-35
uIce
age
uClimate
change & humans
uFigures
37-44
uLithosphere
uClimatology
uCoupled
behavior
uFuture
research
uCCSP
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47-49
uGCEP
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uGreen
market
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uGeoscientist’s
view
uSummary
uFigure
58
uReferences
|
-
The Climate of Planet
Earth is in a continuous state of either cooling or warming as the
elegant sun-earth climate system equilibrates the surface
temperature within a range of ~16o Centigrade.
-
We are currently
living in a not-yet-completed interglacial stage and we are
experiencing a minor warming trend. Glacial periods tend to have
more rapid climate changes. In the last 15 thousand years, there
have been two types of climate change -1) Moderate and gradual, 2)
Major and abrupt.
-
The last decade of
climate research has taught us what we do not know and has revealed
that we are only at the beginning of the learning curve. "We do not
understand the fundamentals of abrupt climate change well enough to
predict them." (NRC Climate Change 2002).
-
The deep difficulty
of conducting climate and global change research is that is requires
the non-linear complex integration of a wide spectrum of the
sciences - meteorology, physics, chemistry, geology, botany,
biology, mathematics, and sophisticated computer modeling.
-
Climate is not
weather - it is infinitely more complex.
Reports
of the U.S. National Research Council Natural Academy of Science (Figure
1)
-
Science for
Decision-Making, Global Environmental Change
-
Abrupt Climate
Change: Inevitable Surprises
-
Decade-to-Century-Scale Climate Variability and Change: A Science
Strategy
-
Review of Integrated
Science
-
The Atmospheric
Sciences: Entering the Twenty-First Century.
The
solar-terrestrial connections: Space weather--Selected publications
(Figure 2)
-
Storms from the Sun,
by Michael J. Carlowicz and Ramon E. Lopez
-
Space Weather, edited
by Paul Song, Howard J. Singer, and George L. Siscoe
-
Solar Activity and
Earth's Climate, by Rasmus E. Benestad
Physicists seek simplicity in universal laws that create and control
climate. Earth system scientists revel in complex interdependencies
(Physics Today, October, 2002).
Physics
The
more you look, the simpler it gets.
Universal patterns, search for laws.
Predictive (chaos and quantum mechanics notwithstanding).
Central
role for ideal systems (ideal gas, harmonic oscillator).
Ecology
The
more you look, the more complex it gets.
Weak
trends; reluctance to seek laws.
Mostly
descriptive; explanatory.
Disdain
for caricatures of nature / analogs.
“I have
witnessed the dysfunctional consequences of this bimodal legacy," Dr.
John Harte (particle physicist), Energy Resource Group, University of
California, Berkeley.
To
complicate the biomodal thinking of physicists and earth systems
scientists, economists follow preferred economic models; geopoliticians
and nations follow trends of perception; and the layman follows______?
The
word climate is derived from the Greek Klima or region of
the earth's surface. A basic definition is:
CLIMATE
is a broad composite of the average meteorological conditions of a
geographic region, measured in terms of such things as temperature,
rainfall, snowfall, ice cover, and winds over an extended period of
time.
CLIMATE
is also used to refer to the mean state of a planet or geographic
regions, such as continents or oceans.
External Mechanisms
|
 |
Figure 4. The sun (Courtesy NASA/TRACE).
|
|
 |
Figure 5. Solar radiation. Sunspot number from 1610 to 1970 and
solar total irradiance from 1600 to 2000 (upper right) (after
Lean et al., 1995; Pang and Yau, 2002, with permission of
American Geophysical Union). Total solar magnetic
flux emanating from the sun from 1875 to 1990 (lower right)
(from Lockwood et al., 1999, with permission of Nature --
http://www.nature.com/help/reprints_and_permissions/permit_form.html). |
|
 |
Figure 6. Geomagnetic storms and cloud formation ?. The Earth's
magnetic diapole, geomagnetic storms, and cloud formation
(left) (NASA). The Earth offset magnetic diapole (right) (after
Campbell, 2003). |
|
 |
Figure 7. Solar connections. |
|
 |
Figure 8. Solar-terrestrial system: The Sun and Earth's
magnetosphere. Artist concept of the solar-terrestrial system
showing the active Sun and Earth's magnetosphere. |
|
 |
Figure 9. Celestial driver of Phanerozoic climate?. Our Milky
Way galaxy is similar to the spiral galaxy (NGC 1232) (after
European Southern Observatory, 2003--Spiral
Galaxy NGC 1232-VLTUTI+FOTSI; ESO PR Photo 37d/98[23 September
1998] © European Southern Observatory; used with permission). |
|
 |
Figure 10. Milankovitch cycles (left image, from Rumney, 1968).
|
|
 |
Figure 11. Milankovitch cycles recorded in the Calatayud basin
of Northeast Spain. Spectral analyses of proxy records in the
depth and time domain reveal that the small-scale
mudstone-carbonate cycles correspond to the astronomical 19-23
kyr precession cycles, whereas the large-scale cycles reflect
the 400 kyr eccentricity cycle. (from Abdul Aziz, 2003). |
|
 |
Figure 12. Chicxulub and the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary.
Chicxulub impact event (from Lunar and Planetary Laboratory,
University of Arizona, 2003). |
Itemization of External Mechanisms
Solar
radiation and galactic forcing - an emerging science
Sunspot variation and irradiance changes - directly affects temperature
Solar
ultraviolet wavelength variability - affects ozone production and upper
atmosphere winds
Magnetic variation - affects rainfall and cloud cover, at least
partially, through control of the earth's electrical field
Celestial influence?
Earth's
orbital changes - linear cycles within a non-linear system
Eccentricity - rotation }
Obliquity (tilt) } Milankovitch Cycles 19-23 K, 1 K
& 100-400 K
Precession of equinoxes }
Asteroid impacts - creates dust clouds and tidal waves
Aerosols - blockage of sun's radiation
Extinction
The
Moon
Gravity deflections
Earth
and ocean tides - interaction with Coriolis force
Biological rhythms
Solar
Radiation and Galactic Forcing
Sunspot variation and irradiance changes
Solar
ultraviolet wavelength variability
Magnetic variation
Celestial influence?
The Sun
(Figure 4)
The
diameter of the sun is 864,000 miles. Hydrogen and helium compose 95% of
it. Energy is generated by thermonuclear fusion that converts hydrogen
to helium. Solar flairs hurl radiation and particles into space. The
plasma temperature is about 1million degrees. Bright region "sun spots"
have higher density of coronal gas than dark regions.
Solar
radiation - an emerging science (Figure 5)
Sunspot
variation and irradiance changes directly affect temperature.
Magnetic variation affects rainfall and cloud cover, at least partially,
through control of the earth's electrical field (Figure 6).
Earth's
orbital changes-linear cycles within a non-linear system (Figures
10 and
11).
Eccentricity - changes in the shape of the orbit about the sun
(100k-400k cycles).
Obliquity - tilt of the Earth (23 1/2o) (41k cycle)
(illustrated with major atmosphere patterns by George R. Rumney, 1968).
Precession of equinoxes - the timing of the Earth's closest approach to
the sun (19k-23k).
Asteroid impacts (Figure 12)- creates dust clouds and tidal waves and
faunal and floral extinctions.
The
moon - Earth tides and ocean currents.
Return to top.
Major climatic forcing mechanisms
of the Sun - Earth climate system
Internal
Itemization of Internal
Mechanisms
Subsurface atmosphere
Atmosphere - involved in every physical process of potential importance
to abrupt climate change: temperature, humidity, cloudiness, wind.
Albedo (reflectance) - the ratio of reflected to incident radiation from
the sun.
Atmosphere - water vapor is the largest greenhouse gas because it's
molecules absorb along wavelengths.
Earth surface (land-sea-ice)
Circulation cells and patterns - rapidly propagate the influence of any
climate forcing from once part of the globe to another.
Gas
composition – chemistry - carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4),
nitrous oxide (N2), halocarbons, troposphereic nitrogen
oxides, carbon monoxide (CO), sulfate aerosols - city heat.
Greenhouse warming gases
Aerosols
Ocean-terrestrial-atmosphere feedback
Internal oscillation zones
Hydrosphere - water is fundamental to creating and regulating the
earth's climate.
Oceans - enormous heat capacity, to store and transfer heat in 3
dimensions.
Thermohaline circulation - a major long term regulator of temperature -
a switch?
Internal dynamics (El Niño) - a 2-3 year heating event that sets weather
patterns.
Lakes
- overturning, moisture, areal extent, outburst floods.
River
systems
Subsurface aquifers - facilitates biological processes (respiration and
photosynthesis), physical processes (erosion), and chemical processes
(dissolution and chemical weathering).
Carbon cycle
Biosphere - a key component in global biogeochemical cycling (storage
and release) of carbon, nutrients and other chemicals that influence
climate.
Life
forms (marine and terrestrial).
Carbon dioxide (biological pump) cycle - stores and releases CO2.
Methane - wetlands and animals.
Forests - O2 and albedo.
Anthropologic evolution - man, his works and products.
Cryosphere - polar ice is rare in the earth's history and generates a
delicate climate system.
Terrestrial - sea level and elevation changes, albedo feedback and
yields fresh water
Marine - ice-rifted debris, increases the planet's albedo, sea air
exchange.
Lithosphere - 100 km thick layer above the aesthenosphere, mantle, and
core - forms the earth's dynamic "plates."
Plate
tectonics - 8 major plates and 26 minor plates in dynamic interaction.
Shape and distribution of continents and oceans / pathways - change
current patterns and upwelling.
Mountain building - orographic lift - monsoons - weather patterns and
creates river drainages.
Uplift and subsidence - equilibrates heat of the earth, forms
sedimentary basins.
Volcanism
Gases - composition - greenhouse gases and aerosols.
Ash
clouds - albedo and mineral nutrients.
Magma
Topography and bathymetry
Why a Geoscientist (Figure 13)
The
reductionist methods of breaking complex systems into simple parts has
been partially successful in assessing risk. But it has left a vacuum
when it comes to predicting complex fluid streams (oil and gas) in the
subsurface realm.
How do
we use the information gleaned about the parts to build up a theory of
the whole? The deep difficulty here lies in the fact that the complex
whole may exhibit properties that are not readily explained by
understanding the parts. The complex whole, in a completely nonmystical
sense, can often exhibit collective properties, self organizing"emergent"
features that are lawful in their own right. (Stuart Kauffman, e.g.,
1995)
Sedimentary basin systems--"Similarity to climate systems" (Figures
14, 15, and
16)
-
The mental model of
sedimentary basins envisioned here is that basins are complex,
non-linear, self-organizing, dynamic natural systems. They are
thrown in and out of thermodynamic and pressure equilibrium and
experience obth positive and negative feedback as they attempt to
maintain equilibrium throughout their unique evolution.
-
The fluids
(oil-gas-water) are the most unstable and mobile parameters of
sedimentary basin systems and are the major agents in self
organization on the maintenance of equilibrium.
-
Petroleum exploration
is the science and art of envisioning multiphase fluid and rock
interactions envisioned through time in a high pressure and
temperature environment of the subsurface atmosphere.
|
 |
Figure 17. Montage of aspects of the earth and its atmosphere
(with data from Crowley and North, 1991). Obliquity and major atmosphere
patterns (from Rumney, 1968, with permission of MacMillan
Company), global image showing atmosphere
patterns in Western Hemisphere and parts of Pacific and Atlantic
oceans, pathways for mobile polar highs (MPH) and resulting
trade wind circulation in the tropics (based on Leroux, 1993)
(from Bryant, 1997, with permission of Cambridge University
Press), and meridional cross-section of the
atmospheric circulation for the Northern Hemisphere in winter
(from Barry and Chorley, 1968, with permision of Thomson
Publishing Services). |
|
 |
Figure 18. Systems within systems. Diagram of the various
elements and systems within the Sun - Earth climate system. |
|
 |
Figure 19. The Earth's temperature (after Hollander, 2003). A.
Global surface air-temperatures (1880-2000) (after Hansen et al.,
1999, with permission of Journal of Geophysical Research). B. Historical global temperature trends over the last
800,000 years. Temperatures were inferred from oxygen-isotope
ratios in sea-floor fossil plankton, based on data from several
studies (after Crowley, 1996, with permission of Consequences). |
|
 |
Figure 20. Climate reconstruction (after Esper et al., 2004,
with permission of American Geophysical Union). |
|
 |
Figure 21. CO2 and temperature trends. A. Oil
and Coal each account for about 40% of global fossil fuel
emissions of CO2, and natural gas accounted for about
20%. B. According to measurements of atmospheric CO2,
concentrations from Mauna Loa observatory, the average growth
rate since 1955 is about 3 gigatons (billions of metric tons)
for carbon per year. C. Global average surface
temperatures are calculated from thousands of individual station
measurements spread across the globe. Observations are more
complete over land in the Northern Hemisphere and since 1940.
D. Global average temperatures measured from satellites show
little evidence of global warming from the late 1970s through
1997. An uptick in temperatures in 1998 was reversed in 1999. (ExxonMobil.) |
|
 |
Figure 22. The Asian Brown Cloud. Synoptic view of the Asian
during The Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX), left, for the
SEAWIFS satellite. The three photographs on the right taken from
the C-130 research aircraft show images of (a) the dense haze in
the Arabian Sea, (b) the trade cumuli embedded in the haze, and
(c) the pristine southern Indian Ocean. (Courtesy of N. Kuring,
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Kuring, 2002). |
|
 |
Figure 23. Potential transcontinental nature of the "Haze."
Forwarded trajectories from 700 mb, March 14-21, 1999.
Trajectories are from India, China, Mexico, U.S. east and west
coasts, London, Paris, and Berlin (Courtesy of T.N. Krishnamuri;
Krishnamuri, 2002). |
|
 |
Figure 24. Coal bed fires of China's Ningxia
Region
(photo © Anupma Prakash [Geophysical Institute, University of
Alaska; Fairbanks], 2005).
The fires, which burn millions of tons of coal
per year, spew nearly as much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere
as do all the cars in the United States. |
|
 |
Figure 25. Population of selected Asian cities (population in
millions) (data from Fuchs, R.J., et al., 1994). Range of annual
averages of SO2 concentrations during 1980-84 period
in µg/m3 (data from Graedel and Crutzen, 1993). (Compilation from
UNEP, 2002.) |
Return to top.
Large-scale temperature reconstructions after millennial-scale
variations have been removed by de-trending with a cubic smoothing
spline with a 50% frequency-response cutoff width equal to 67% of the
length of the common period (1000-1980): purple, Briffa (2000); blue,
Mann et al (1999); red, Esper et al. (2002); green, Jones et al. (1998).
The series are not smoothed to illustrate the full range of variability
up to centennial scales. The inter-series correlations between all four
reconstructions are 0.42 for non-smoothed data and 0.63 for 50-year
smoothed data, both calculated over the 1000-1980 period. Inter-series
correlations for each century (1901-1980 for the 20th century) remain
fairly high and stable over time (numbers provided in brackets). The
lowest correlation (0.27) occurs in the 11th century, despite the fact
that the relative data overlap (e.g., Tornetraesk and Polar Urals tree
ring data used in all reconstructions) is greatest during this early
period. In boxes, the number of the northern hemisphere regional proxy
records considered in the large-scale reconstructions are provided for
1900, 1500, and 1000 (colors as for the curves). Values in parentheses
indicate numbers of tree ring records. For Mann et al. (1999), 112 in
1900 includes records from the southern hemisphere, and the numbers for
1500 and 1000 include principal components derived from 21 western and 6
southern U.S. tree sites that are counted as two regional records.
|
 |
Figure 26. Thermohaline circulation through time (Late
Proterozoic to Present) (from Gerhard and Harrison, 2001).
Click to view sequence of thermohaline circulation through
time. |
|
 |
Figure 27. Thermohaline current. A. A schematic of the
ocean circulation system, often called the Great Ocean Conveyor,
that transports heat throughout the world oceans. Red arrows
indicate warm surface currents. Blue arrows indicate deep cold
currents (from Gagosian, 2002). B. New data shows that
North Atlantic waters at depths between 1000 and 4000 meters are
becoming dramatically less salty, especially in the last decade.
Red indicates saltier-than-normal waters. Blue indicates fresher
waters. Oceanographers say we may be approaching a threshold
that would shut down the Great Ocean Conveyor and cause abrupt
climate changes (from Gagosian, 2002). C. Conceptualized
climate system, representing the temperature in and around the
North Atlantic Ocean as a function of fresh- water input to the
northern North Atlantic. The upper branch (red) features strong
deep circulation. Along the lower branch (blue), the circulation
is collapsed. The modern climate, with its freshwater flux F, is
on the upper branch, as shown in green. When the fresh water
reaches a threshold (F + DF),
the system flips rapidly to the lower, cold regime. Going back
to the warm mode would require a greatly reduced freshwater
input (F - DF'). This
diagram is highly schematic; the exact position of the modern
climate with respect to bifurcation points is largely unknown.
Moreover, the shape (particularly the width (DF
+ DF') of the
hysteresis loop depends on parameters that are external to the
ocean-atmosphere system. (reprinted with permission from Edouard Bord, 2002,
Climate shock: Abrupt changes over millennial time scales:
Physics Today, December, Copyright 2002, American Institute of
Physics). |
|
 |
Figure 28. Thermohaline fine structure in an oceanographic front
from seismic refection profiling (from Holbrook et al., 2003,
with permission of Science).
A. Location of seismic lines in the Newfoundland Basin.
Bold lines show portions of seismic lines shown in B and
C. B. Bottom: Stacked seismic section of water
column on line 1mcs. Image has a vertical exaggeration of 16.
Vertical axis is two-way travel time (TWTT) in seconds; the base
of the section at 6 s corresponds to a depth of ~4500 m in the
ocean. Horizontal axis is in CMP; CMP spacing is 6.25 m. Box
denotes portion of profile depicted in inset, which shows
coherent "slabs" penetrating to ~1000 m depth. Top: Color-coded
plot of stacking sound speed in the ocean, which is
approximately equal to root-mean square sound speed. Cold colors
correspond to low sound speed (minimum of ~1440 m/s); warm
colors reflect higher sound speed (maximum of ~1530 m/s);
boundary between blue and yellow is 1505 m/s. A plot of SST
measured during the seismic survey is superimposed; the front
between the LC and NAC is visible as an abrupt ~5°C increase in
temperature at CMP 69500. C. Bottom: Stacked seismic
section of water column on line 2mcs, plotted as in B,
except with vertical exaggeration of 27. Box denotes portion of
profile depicted in inset, which shows "slabs" losing coherency
at depths of ~1000 m. Top: Stacking sound speed in the ocean,
which is approximately equal to root-mean-square sound speed and
SST, plotted as in B. The front is visible at CMP 229000. |
|
 |
Figure 29. Eustatic cycle chart No. 1 - Phanerozoic. (from Vail
and Mitchum, 1979). |
|
 |
Figure 30. Sea level and coastal erosion satellite monitoring.
A. Shoreline conditions along the U.S. East Coast. B.
TOPEX/Poseidon measurement system (from JPL, 2004). Global sea
level rise can be determined with considerable precision from
the Topex/Poseidon satellite. C. Sea level data from the
Topex/Poseidon satellite. |
Water
is fundamental to creating and regulating the Earth's climate.
-
Oceans - enormous
heat capacity, to store and transfer heat in 3 dimensions - sea
level cycles
-
Thermohaline
circulation - a major long term regulator of global temperature -
on-off switch ?
-
Internal dynamics (El
Niño) - a 2-3 year heating event that sets weather patterns
-
Lakes - overturning,
moisture, geographic extent, outburst floods
-
River systems -
recycle water, carry nutrients to the sea and mixes
-
Subsurface aquifers -
facilitates biological processes (respiration and photosynthesis),
physical processes (erosion), and chemical processes (dissolution
and chemical weathering)
-
Source-rock
deposition and preservation
“How
will Earth's climate respond to ongoing changes in greenhouse gases and
ocean circulation? Answers about the future might be found in the past.”
-- Edouard Bard (Figure 26)
Deep
sea sediments provide the most stratigraphically complete and globally
representative proxy records of paleoclimate change.
|
 |
Figure 31. Isotopic climate indicators (after Lyle, 2002). A.
Synthesis of magnetic stratigraphy from four Leg 199 drill
sites. Depth scale in med is shown on the right of each column,
and geographic coordinates are shown at the bottom of each
column. Black = normal magnetic polarity, white = reversed
magnetic polarity, gray = no polarity assignment possible.
Crosses = intervals with no data, dashed lines = correlation
between selected chrons to the GPTS (Cande and Kent, 1995). B.
Compilation of benthic oxygen isotope data for the Cenozoic (Zachos
et al., 2001). Also shown is the time window investigated during
ODP Leg 199 and the position of three major events targeted by
the leg. P/E = Paleocene / Eocene boundary and its associated
thermal event. Oi-1 is approximately at the E/O boundary and
marks the first major Antarctic glaciation. Mi-1 is near the O/M
boundary and marks the beginning of the development of the
Neogene cryosphere. |
|
 |
Figure 32. Climate recordings in the
cryosphere. A. Top: Ice sheets reveal annual layers,
which scientists can analyze to reconstruct the history of
precipitation and air temperatures 100,000 years into the past.
Bottom: Cores of seafloor sediments reveal the climate history
of the ocean. (from Gagosian, 2002). B. The pattern of
temperature change over the last 110,000 years as recorded by
the 18O to 16O ratio in Greenland ice
(Dansgaard et al., 1993). The absolute temperature range has
been independently determined from the temperature profile
measured in the borehole (Cuffey et al., 1994). C.
Relative temperature and accumulation of snowfall plotted
against age (thousands of years before the present) (after
Cuffey and Clow, 1997; Alley et al., 1997, with permission of
Geological Society of America). D. The most recently
published data from the newest Greenland ice cores (Johnsen et
al., 1992). Note the significantly greater resolution.
Temperatures are interpreted from dD and 18O. At the
height of the last glacial maximum approximately 18 Ka,
temperatures were approximately 12-13oC cooler than
present, a slightly more extreme difference than observed in the
Antarctic cores. (After Kerr, 1993, with permission of Science.) |
|
 |
Figure 33. How solar cycles affect
climate. A. Relative temperature and accumulation of snowfall
plotted against age (thousands of years before the present)
(after Cuffey and Clow, 1997; Alley et al., 1997, with
permission of Geological Society of America). B. Top: Variations
in solar radiation received at the top of Earth's atmosphere
relative to present day in W/m2 as a function of time
of year and for thousands of years in the past. Bottom: Changes
in SST near the equator in the Eastern Pacific at 99°W, 0.4°S
for times in the past as given, based on changes simulated in
the CCSM relative to 1800 A.D. (From Trenberth and
Otto-Bliesner, 2003, with permission of Science.) |
|
 |
Figure 34. Synchrony and climate change: Antarctic ice cores
(from Petit et al., 1999, with permission of Nature--http://www.nature.com/help/reprints_and_permissions/permit_form.html). |
|
 |
Figure 35. Indian Ocean climate and monsoons: A.
Oxygen-isotope ratios of a stalagmite, Socotra Island, along
with plots, representing approximately 40,000 to 55,000 years
before the present, from China and Greenland. B. Onset of
interstadial 12 (~25 years), shown by
d18O data
from Socotra Island. (From Burns et al., 2003, with permission
of Science.) |
Return to top.
“It is
12,500 years since the last ice age ended, which means the next one is
long overdue. When the ice comes, most of northern America, Britain, and
northern Europe will disappear under the glaciers. In this remarkable
book, an eminent scientist presents his revolutionary theory on the
cause of ice ages and warns that a new ice age may be near.
“In
conflict with the traditional view that ice ages build up gradually over
thousands of years, Sir Fred Hoyle argues convincingly that the right
conditions can arise within a single decade. His fascinating theory is
supported with evidence drawn from geology, astronomy, evolution, and a
study of unusual weather patterns. In showing that an ice age is
imminent, he sets out what needs to be done urgently now to avoid this,
the ultimate human catastrophe.” (Hoyle, 1981)
|
 |
Figure 37. Climate changes in Central Greenland over the last
17,000 years (Northern Hemisphere): Paleotemperatures and
snowfall (after Cuffey and Clow, 1997; Alley et al., 1997, with
permission of Geological Society of America). |
|
 |
Figure 38. Global climate (from Scotese, 2003) and generalized,
basic global climate (lower left) (after Alley et al., 1997). |
|
 |
Figure 39. Recent African genesis of humans (from Cann and
Wilson, 2003, with permission of Scientific American). |
|
 |
Figure 40. Climate and sea level change, 9,900 YBP (from Plagnes
et al., 2003, with permission of Quaternary Research, Elsevier
B.V.). |
|
 |
Figure 41. Trends in net primary
productivity (NPP), 1982-1998 (gCm-2yr-2)
(after Hicke et al., 2002, with permission of American
Geophysical Union). |
|
 |
Figure 42. Malaspina Glacier, showing decreasing size. |
|
 |
Figure 43. Map showing the Pacific Jet
Stream on February 13, 1999, during La Niña Phase. The Jet
Stream entry point was above Vancouver and the sharp bend over
the Great Lakes region coincided with a cold front. Temperatures
at ground level were coldest on the north side of the Jet stream
and warmer on the south side. (After Unisys Weather, 1999.) |
|
 |
Figure 44. A. Map showing typical temperature anomalies
during December, January, and February of nine El Niño phases,
1947-1987. Temperatures were warmer than normal in the north
central (Great Lakes) region and colder than normal in the
southwestern and southeastern U.S.
(From NOAA--http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/el-nin/gif/fst-temp-us-big.gif;
Sittel, 1994.) B. Map showing typical
temperature anomalies during December, January, and February of
twelve El Niña phases, 1947-1987. Temperatures were colder than
normal in the northwestern U.S. and warmer than normal in the
central and southeastern U.S. during these La Niña events.
(From Sittel, 1994;
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/research/matt/maxtdjf.dv.gif.)
|
Lithosphere is a 100-km-thick layer above the aesthenosphere, mantle,
and core. It forms the Earth's dynamic plates
Plate
Tectonics - 8 major plates and 26 minor plates in dynamic interaction
-
Shape and
distribution of continents and oceans - change current patterns and
upwelling - spreading rifts.
-
Mountain building -
orographic lift - monsoons - weather patterns and creates river
drainages.
-
Uplift and subsidence
- equilibrates heat of the earth, forms sedimentary basins.
Volcanism - interaction of the earth's interior with the atmosphere
-
Gases - composition -
greenhouse gases.
-
Ash clouds - albedo
and mineral nutrients.
-
Magma - minerals,
heat, nutrients and topography.
-
Topography and
bathymetry - seafloor spreading ridges, large igneous provinces
(LIPS), and mountain ranges with glaciers, ocean current pathways.
Climate
science is developing rapidly - we are in the steep part of the learning
curve. Climate change science must integrate atmospheric science with
the other physical sciences.
-
The interacting
mechanisms can exhibit collective, non-linear properties "emergent"
features that are lawful in their own right.
-
The search for
predictable properties of hybrid forces is emerging as a fundamental
research strategy in climate research.
Processes
-
Ocean circulation -
deep and global
-
Sea-ice transport and
processes
-
Land-ice behavior -
conditions beneath ice sheets
-
The hydrological
cycle - storage, runoff and permafrost
-
Modes of atmospheric
behavior - cloud formation
-
The sun's irradiance
variability
-
Develop additional
proxies of paleoclimates - (isotopes & biologic)
Advanced Modeling
-
To model complex,
non-linear interacting processes
-
Fully coupled whole
earth system models - to generate scenarios of abrupt climate change
with high spatial and temporal resolution for tracking
-
Advanced statistical
methods to model to understand thresholds and non-linear ties in
geophysical, ecological and economic systems
Tools
-
Enhanced
computational resources for modeling
-
New satellite data
for mapping temperature, detailed bathymetry, uplift-subsidence and
eustatic sea level
-
A grid of earth
measuring stations for better geographic coverage and temporal
resolution - EarthScope, Nanno / reporting stations
Return to top.
“Our
investment in GCEP is a demonstration of our long-held belief that
successful development and global deployment of innovative, commercially
viable technology is the only path that can address long-term climate
change risks while preserving and promoting prosperity of the world's
economies. ExxonMobil is proud to work with a university of the
reputation, experience, and ability of Stanford, and to be among the
select group of sponsors coming together to make this project happen.”
(Lee Raymond, ExxonMobil Chairman and CEO.)
“There
is much to do, but there is much that can be done, and the time to start
is now.” (Professor Franklin [Lynn] Orr, GCEP Project Director.)
|
 |
Figure 50. GCEP (Global Climate & Energy Project), Stanford
University (www.gcep.stanford.edu)
|
|
 |
Figure 51. World population and light pollution. |
|
 |
Figure 52. Global imaging / vegetation types (from Ramankutty
and Foley, 1999, with permission of American Geophysical Union). |
|
 |
Figure 53. Global cropland area (from Ramankutty and Foley,
1999, with permission of American Geophysical Union). |
|
 |
Figure 54. Projected annual renewable water supply per person by
river basin, 2025 (after Johnston et al., 2001, with permission
of Science) (World Resources
Institute, Washington, D.C.). |
|
 |
Figure 55. A dry winter: The snow drought's wide reach. |
Green
Market and Environmental Crisis
(Figures 56 and 57)
As
emissions rise. . ., a new market is born. It shows industry moving on
global warming. Even as Bush opposes Kyoto, firms are trading rights to
emit greenhouse gases. (Jeffrey Ball, The Wall Street Journal, January,
2003.)
Some
people, NGO's, politicians and some environmental scientists, genuinely
subscribe to a gloomy picture of the Earth's future. Many of these
scientists are not uninformed, nor naive, or unprofessional, or captive
to special interests; but they have indeed moved into a pessimistic
sphere that generates an environment of righteousness, elitism,
environmental orthodoxy, and a view of "science" that aims at forgone
conclusions and the need forever-increasing research grants.
The
last decade has seen a rapid advancement of the climate sciences. The
intellectual stream of thought from Data -> Information -> Knowledge ->
Integration -> Wisdom has experienced step function advancements at many
levels since the early 1990's. State-of-the-Art science for
decision-making is critical for global environmental care and economic
prosperity.
I am
optimistic about the Earth's environmental future, and I believe there
is plenty of evidence to support an optimistic, though not cornucopian,
view of our planet's environmental future.
If one
believes that affluence fosters environmentalism, then the essential
prerequisites for our earth's environmental future are a global
transition from poverty to affluence coupled with transition to freedom
and democracy and the growth of scientific knowledge.
(+After
Dr. Jack M. Hollander, 2003)
-
Climate science is
developing rapidly - we are in the steep part of the learning curve.
Climate change science must integrate atmospheric science with the
other pertinent scientific disciplines.
-
We do not yet
understand the complex processes of climate system well enough to
construct rigorous models of future climate change.
-
The continents and
oceans are being systematically "wired" with broadband
communications, sensors and satellites that are recording vast
amounts of global data and information.
-
The massive data sets
and rapidly evolving concepts of climate change will spark public
debate at an increasing rate.
-
Mutual respect and
honest debate are critical to the advancement of the science.
Return to top.
Figure 58
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