Slide 4. Global Trends

a. In 1980, fossil energy represented 91% of energy demand versus 87% today. The interesting “oil peak” actually happened in 1979 when oil as a percent of total energy peaked at just below 50% and has been decreasing steadily since that time. The fossil energy mix is different today than it was 28 years ago, with less oil, more natural gas and slightly more coal. As we move forward, global demand for energy will continue to increase, at rates perhaps as low as 1.25% per year if certain efficiency measures are deployed. Oil as a percentage is likely to continue to decrease and natural gas and coal will retain stable percentage positions. Fossil fuels combined will still represent a vital 80% of the total mix in 2030.

b. Because global energy demand will rise, actual production of oil will plateau at or near today’s levels, and production of natural gas and coal, along with other non-fossil sources, will continue to rise in terms of produced units, with the greatest percentage increases coming from non-fossil sources including nuclear, wind, solar, geothermal and perhaps biomass. Most natural resource experts recognize that production of conventional oil is reaching a plateau and that global demand pressure, which is straining conventional oil production capacity, is driving oil price up. Increased price will dampen demand and allow for new technology to be deployed that will lead to development of additional conventional and unconventional oil reserves. This economic–industrial cycle is both common and predictable. Thus, although production of conventional oil is flattening, near-term “peak oil” is perhaps less about oil resource limits and more about ever-stronger global demand coupled with limited access to known resources.