The Challenging Role for Giant Fields: Can We Expect Giant Fields to Meet Increasing Oil Demand Trends?

Sandy Rushworth¹, Philip H. Stark², Alex Chakhmakhchev¹, and Melissa A. Manning^1
1 IHS Energy, Houston, TX
² IHS Energy, Englewood, CO

For almost 20 years new oil discoveries have failed to replace production. Correspondingly, the number of large and giant (> 500 MMboe) discoveries have declined and average discovery size has decreased while demand has continued to increase. These contrary trends raise concerns about industry's ability to meet global energy needs. For the balance of this decade, nevertheless, projected liquids capacity growth is expected to exceed demand.

The objective of this paper is to frame the critical role of giant fields in meeting the global oil future. Since 1994 giant fields represent only 2% of the discoveries but almost half of the resources added. But 144 Bbo of liquids discoveries since 1994 replaced only about 61% of the consumption. Field growth, mostly in giant historic fields and increased recoveries in Canadian and Venezuelan oil sands, though, added about 190 Bbo of additional resource - more than replacing consumption. The combination of recent giant discoveries and reserve growth from historic giants will drive the projected liquids production growth through this decade. Other factors are critical to sustain future production growth. One is access to enormous Middle East resources with potential for more than 250 Bbo in giant fields. Another is technology. A five percent increase in recovery factor could add about 220 Bbo from western hemisphere oil sands. Proposed GTL technologies, mostly targeting fallow giant gas resources in the Middle East and Asia, could add 1.5 MMb/d of liquids production by 2020. Giant hydrocarbon accumulations will continue to dominate future liquids supplies.