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The Erosion of Knowledge and the Roles of Professional Societies:
Is there a Responsibility Implied?
Or...Larson’s Look at the Future of Finding Oil and Gas)*
By
J. B. (Jack) Thomas1
Search and Discovery Article #70011 (2004)
*Adapted from oral presentation to Tulsa Geological Society, September 7, 2004.
1AAPG Geoscience Director, Tulsa, OK ([email protected])
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Industry Prediction* of Workforce in 1996-- was it Correct?· 1996 estimate of 400,000 geologists, engineers, and geophysicists in energy· 2000 forecast ~ 100,000 projected· 2002 extrapolated < 80,000· 2004 extrapolated < 50,000If Workforce is growing in 2004 and beyond…where and how?* A.Anderson Consulting report, 1998, estimates excludes data from China.Loss of Corporate Memory
University EnrollmentLower enrollment in petroleumInterdisciplinary requirementsIncreased strain on industry workforce (Figure 1)
Last 20 YearsSmaller StaffsMergersYounger StaffsWhere do the mentors go (Figure 2)?
To fight this, companies:Provide technology.Use vendor specialists.Interdisciplinary teams.But it cannot come to this (Figure 3)!
Information You Can Use = KnowledgeWe need information access from:Print publicationsDigital publicationsOnline databasesPeople who “have done it”…the MentorsWhere to learn about these sources?“Surf the Net”AcademiaProfessional SocietiesThe Professional Society “Node”Need to know how people learn: graphic, audio, tactile.Emphasize understanding “basics” and “case studies.”Be a partner in digital archiving.Show successful “Shortcuts.”Mentor and train.
What About Knowledge and Professional Societies?The only difference between a library and dead storage is an index- Put it to use!Develop relevant publications.Show people how to do it--Professional Development.Help them experience the “hunt.”Celebrate and learn from the past.
What About Knowledge in the 21st Century (Figure 4)?
It is not efficient for every company to create its own library.Societies (as publishers) have a responsibility to foster this activitySocieties can lead in professional developmentThe Successful Technical Professional…Needs:Rapid access to dataReady-to-use formatsInterdisciplinary trainingThe challenge to think differently (Figure 5)
Needs to know:Source of the dataQuality of the dataTechnical informationProjection stats, etc.Presented as quickly as possibleDocumentation on how well the data were utilizedWhere to go?Society Publications are Essential!TGS has created Regional Guidebooks, Field Trips, Short Courses, a Digest of Important PapersAAPG provides more than 100 different products on technical and business aspects of E&PSEPM- petrology and paleo that documents key concepts.SEG- important geophysical theory and application publications (digital and print)SPE- important knowledge on petroleum engineering, drilling topicsSPWLA- critical understanding on formation evaluation topicsKnowledge: the Legacy of SocietiesWhen a society goes out of existence…What happens to the knowledge?What happens to the mentors?Will the “wheel be re-discovered”?Requirement of future generations…Tap the knowledge by reading.Listen to the oral histories.Generate new ideas based on past experiences (LEARN!).AAPG/Datapages ExampleCollections PreservationAAPG BulletinAAPG Special PublicationsJournal of Sedimentary Research (SEPM)Journal of Petroleum Geology (Scientific Press)Gulf Coast Transactions (GCAGS)Canadian (CSPG) BulletinCanadian (CSPG) Special PublicationsNew Orleans Geological SocietyLafayette Geological SocietyOklahoma City Geological SocietyIn processTulsa Geological SocietyFt. Worth Geol. SocietyKansas Geological SocietyWyoming Geological AssociationothersSocieties can help Balance these Demand and Supply BarriersGeophysics- 3D, 4D Drilling- deeper, smarter Gas utilization- GTL, Pipelines Re-supply of offshore operations Environmental Remediation Trained work force
Society Knowledge Applications Here!Deep Shelf, Gulf of Mexico< 500 wells TD below 18,000’North America, Onshore, OffshoreGas; basin centered, CBM, low BTURevitalizing Mature PropertiesUK Continental ShelfSatellite fields tied to infrastructure3D-defined prospects further from landRussia, China, West Africa, Middle EastLearn from the PastDon’t plug the dike with a straw.Think about the aerodynamics of your kite (Figure 6)!
Train, Mentor, Publish…It is Our True Responsibility. |
Figure 1. Special Agent Gumby falls into the frustrated hands of the
enemy.
Figure 2. “Now, Larry, don’t think of this as a forced retirement ...
it’s more like we’re just putting you out to pasture.”
Figure 3. “What are we working on? I’m from Breakthrough Temporaries.”
Figure 4. Institute for Advanced Hindsight: Research into what should
have been. 
Figure 5. “Never, ever, think outside the box.” (From The New Yorker,
November 30, 1998.)
Figure 6. “Okay, Bob! Go! Go!”