Realities of Future North American Natural Gas Supply –The Role of Unconventional Resources, Anticipated Demand and Price Projections

Curtis, John B.¹ (1) Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO

Projections by United States government and gas industry research organizations indicate that annual U.S. gas demand could increase by over 20% from the current 22 trillion cubic feet to 27 trillion cubic feet by the year 2030. This would occur during a period of declining Canadian gas imports and increasing U.S. reliance on LNG imports. The robustness of the North American gas resource base, particularly shale gas, coalbed methane and tight sands gas needs to be quantified.

An analysis is made of conventional and unconventional gas resource assessments of the U.S. Potential Gas Committee for the time period 1996 – 2006. The analysis is for 89 geologic provinces. Additionally, gas resource estimates from the U.S. Geological Survey National Assessment, the 2003 National Petroleum Council study and the 2005 Canadian Gas Potential Committee report establish a range of assessed resource values. Lastly, the total United States – Canadian gas resource base is discussed in relation to current shale and tight gas and coalbed methane plays in the Rocky Mountain and Mid-Continent regions.

Gas price projections are examined in light of 1) price differentials with other Lower-48 producing regions and Canada, 2) competition between natural gas and coal in the electrical power generation sector, and 3) discoveries and reserve additions attributable to the current gas price swings.