Simulated Expert Interpretation of Data to Predict Drilling Risk on a Regional Scale, Case Study -- Brushy Canyon Formation, Delaware Basin, New Mexico

By

R.S. Balch, SPE, W.W. Weiss, and T. Ruan, SPE; Petroleum Recovery Research Center, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM 87801

Incomplete or sparse information introduce high levels of risk for oil exploration and development. To more accurately and consistently predict drilling risk, a degree of automation of data analysis is desirable. “Expert" systems developed and used in several disciplines and industries, have demonstrated beneficial results in modeling the decision making process of human experts. A state-of-the-art “expert” exploration tool using computerized multidisciplinary databases, expert developed "rules", and computer maps generated by neural network's, is being developed using fuzzy logic, a relatively new mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters.

The system employs a web interface for users to select prospect(s) of interest and to allow data review or addition, and includes security to maintain proprietary information. Two types of rules are applied to the data. Heuristic rules are generated directly from engineering, geophysical and geological databases. Expert rules are developed through interviews with successful prospectors. Rules are applied in four categories: Regional Indications, Trap Assessment, Formation Assessment, and Oil Price. Some users may elect to not factor in certain aspects, or to use their own values.

Each of the sub systems assigns a numerical score based on the answers to individual "expert" questions. Results are then combined to form an overall risk assessment associated with the selected prospect(s).

This Expert System can help companies of all sizes, to more efficiently evaluate prospects, and to more rapidly eliminate poor prospects.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90010©2003 AAPG Southwest Section Meeting, Fort Worth, Texas, March 1-4, 2003