Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources of U.S. Arctic Alaska Outer Continental Shelves

By

K.W. Sherwood, J.D. Craig, J. Scherr, P.P. Johnson, and L.W. Cooke (Minerals Management Service)

An assessment of the undiscovered, conventionally recoverable oil and gas potential of the U.S. continental shelves of the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas using probabilistic computer models was conducted by the U.S. Minerals Management Service in Year 2000. Results indicate mean technically recoverable resource quantities of 22 Bbo (3,080 Mmto) and 96 Tcfg (2,718 Gcmg). At a 5 percent fractile (1-in-20 chance) in the range of possible outcomes, up to 33 billion barrels of recoverable oil (Bbo) (4,620 million metric tons of oil [Mmto]) and 198 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas (Tcfg) (5,607 billion cubic meters [Gcmg]) may be present.

Despite the immense oil and gas endowment, only a subordinate fraction of the undiscovered resources may be profitable to develop in the present price-cost climate. At $US30/barrel, a mean quantity of 9.4 Bbo (1,316 Mmto) is economically recoverable, with up to 16.6 Bbo (2,324 Mmto) for the high (5% fractile) resource case. At development costs of $US3.52 per 1,000 cubic feet, a mean quantity of 5.7 Tcfg (161 Gcmg) of associated gas is deliverable to hypothetical future gas transportation systems, with economic potential rising to 21.6 Tcfg (617 Gcmg) for the high (5% fractile) resource case. Most (74%) of the economically recoverable gas resources occur in the Beaufort shelf in association with commercial-sized oil pools. Although Chukchi shelf is estimated to have 60 Tcfg (1,699 Gcmg) of technically recoverable gas, these gas resources were not tested for economic viability because of the small likelihood for economic development in the near-term.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90008©2002 AAPG Pacific Section/SPE Western Region Joint Conference of Geoscientists and Petroleum Engineers, Anchorage, Alaska, May 18–23, 2002.