ROBERT W. ESSER
Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Huntington, NY

Abstract: Giant Discoveries of the 1990s -- Were They Significant?

Annual oil discovery rates in the 1990s have ranged from 4 to 8 billion barrels compared to annual consumption in 1999 of 28 billion barrels. By 2010 consumption is projected to exceed 35 billion barrels. To meet this demand, production from discoveries made in the 1990s must be supplemented by the development of existing reserves, including recognition during the 1990s of the significant pre-1990s discoveries made economic and accessible with new technology and political opening, and development of extra heavy oil in mineable oil sands in Alberta and the Orinoco Oil Belt of Venezuela. Each category will continue to benefit from new technology improving recovery factors, thus adding to production.

The single most important overall area for potential discovery has and will continue to be the deepwater, which has been made economic by both new technology and geology.

During the 1990s leading discovery areas for oil have been Africa/Middle East, Latin America, and the Gulf of Mexico, and the Far East for gas. Leading countries for oil discovery include Angola, the Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, and Algeria; for gas, the Gulf of Mexico, Norway, the Northwest shelf of Australia, and West Iran.

Those countries of significant pre-1990 oil discoveries recognized in the 1990s include the Caspian, Iraq, Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, Canada, and other Middle East countries, especially Saudi Arabia.

Utilizing these sources, and with the continued 1990s pace of new discoveries, oil supplies are projected to be adequate to meet demand at least into 2015; however, gas will continue to enjoy accelerating growth in demand, leading companies to pursue giant new reserves.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90917@2000 AAPG Foundation Pratt II Conference, San Diego, California