Abstract: How Well Do We Know the Size of the U.S. Natural Gas Resource Base?

John B. Curtis

Seven sets of industry and government estimates of the magnitude of the potential natural gas resource base of the United States published between 1988 and 1993 have been analyzed and compared. The various categories of assessed gas resource as well as the respective estimation methodologies were considered. All estimates were normalized to year-end 1992 by adjusting for the amount of reported production since the effective date of each estimate. Estimates for the following organizations were compared: ENRON Corporation; Gas Research Institute; National Petroleum Council; Potential Gas Committee; U.S. Department of Energy; U.S. Department of Energy (National Energy Strategy); and U.S. Department of the Interior; (U.S. Geological Survey and Minerals Management Service National Resource Assessment).

The variation among the estimates reflects not only how industry and government perceive the magnitude and distribution of the resource base but also how differently each may view the effects of current and future technologies on resource recovery. Furthermore, not all the estimators assess the same categories of resource, particularly unconventional gas resources such as coalbed methane. While these published potential gas estimates vary considerably in magnitude, there is nevertheless general agreement that a large, accessible natural gas resource base exists that both backs up the current inventory of proved reserves and is available to make a larger contribution to the Nation's energy supply.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90986©1994 AAPG Annual Convention, Denver, Colorado, June 12-15, 1994