Assessment of Undiscovered Petroleum Resources in Canada

Richard M. Procter

The Geological Survey of Canada has been preparing estimates of Canada's undiscovered oil and gas resources routinely since 1973. These assessments are made using both statistical and subjective probability methods applied at the exploration play level. Essential components derived in both types of methods are the pool size and number of pool distributions for each play. These two elements permit calculation of the size of individual pools expected to exist consistent with the estimates of potential resources. Matching of existing discoveries within the plays to the pool sizes predicted by the methodology provides a level of feedback that can be used to effectively reduce the uncertainty in resource evaluation.

The Geological Survey approach begins with multidisciplinary basin analysis, from which opportunities for oil and gas occurrence (exploration plays) are identified. Definition and quantification of these plays leads to estimates of basin potential as well as pool size and reservoir data adequate for economic analysis. Future petroleum provinces are compared within the context of the total current estimates of Canada's oil and gas resources.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #91030©1988 AAPG Annual Convention, Houston, Texas, 20-23 March 1988.