[First Hit]

Datapages, Inc.Print this page

Click to view presentation in PDF format.   

Click to view presentation, with notes of the author, in PDF format.

 

Introduction to Geological Perspectives of Global Climate Change*

By

Lee C. Gerhard1

 

Search and Discovery Article #70030 (2007)

Posted January 25, 2007

 

*Adapted from presentation at the Tulsa Geological Society meeting, November 14, 2006

 

1Lawrence, Kansas; Director Emeritus, Kansas Geological Survey ([email protected])

 

General Statement 

History has seen many memorable public confrontations between belief systems and science data. Despite the scientific merit of the data, belief systems are powerful endemic and forces against which science must struggle. Some modern examples are evolution and global climate change.  

In both cases, complexity is added to the debates because scientists bring their own belief systems to the controversy. Although the scientific observations and information make a scientifically correct conclusion clear with respect to both evolution and global climate change, belief systems drive media, politics, and group thinking, keeping alive a debate that has no further useful purpose, but which distracts governments and the people from mitigating the effects of natural processes and enhancing public education.  

Much of problem lies in the resurgence of a new cycle of anthropocentrism that started in the 1960’s with the “me” generation. It did not take very long for anthropocentric self-flagellation to begin and identify human beings as the cause of all things “bad.” The next step was inexorable and led to the worship of the “state of nature” without any human beings as the ultimate good. 

The United Nations, a political organization, is the acknowledged leader in the argument that human beings are the cause of global climate change as a result of their use of fossil fuels.  

The mission of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a United Nations organization, is not to study causes of climate change, but to document only one cause, human impacts on climate. This kind of mandate validates the recent quote from geologist, Dr. Peter Flawn (2006), President Emeritus of the University of Texas, Austin: 

"All geologists early in their careers are introduced to solving problems through multiple working hypotheses - of deriving solutions from the data rather than, as is common among some social scientists, settling upon a solution consistent with the reigning theory and supporting it with data selectively chosen." 

 

This presentation documents the current state of scientific information about climate change. The substantial credible scientific evidence establishes that a number of popular assumptions and hypotheses cannot be supported and in some cases are demonstrably false.  

  • Human emissions of carbon dioxide are a significant driver of climate. They are not.

  • Climate change rates and the global warming of today are unprecedented. They are not.

 

However, the data does support a number of less popular hypotheses:  

  • Climate naturally changes constantly, from warmer to cooler and cooler to warmer, and at many levels of intensity over time at many scales.

  • Variation in Solar activity closely correlates with global temperature variations, suggesting that the amount of solar energy reaching the surface of the earth is a primary climate driver at the time scale of decades to millennia.
 

uGeneral statement

uSelected figures

uReferences

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uGeneral statement

uSelected figures

uReferences

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uGeneral statement

uSelected figures

uReferences

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uGeneral statement

uSelected figures

uReferences

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uGeneral statement

uSelected figures

uReferences

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uGeneral statement

uSelected figures

uReferences

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uGeneral statement

uSelected figures

uReferences

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uGeneral statement

uSelected figures

uReferences

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Selected Figures

Population

 

Climate changes constantly.

 

Little or no correlation between CO2 concentration and temperature change. 

 

Natural processes are the most significant climate drivers. 

  

Selected Bibliography

(Recent Important Recommended Readings: Climate Change) 

Alley, Richard B., and Peter U. Clark, 1999, The deglaciation of the Northern Hemisphere: A global perspective: Annual Reviews, Earth and Planetary Science, v. 27, p. 149-182. 

Barring, L., and H. von Storch, 2004, Scandinavian storminess since about 1800. Geophysical Research Letters, v. 31, L20202, doi:10.1029/2004GL020441, 2004. 

Bell, Jim, 2002, Tip of the Martian iceberg?: Science, v. 297, p. 60-61. 

Berner, R.A., 1994, 3Geocarb III: A revised model of atmospheric CO2 over Phanerozoic time: American Journal of Science, v. 291, p. 56-91. 

Bluemle, J.P., J.M. Sabel, and W. Karlen, 1999, Rate and magnitude of past global climate changes: Environmental Geosciences, v. 6, no. 2, p. 63-75.  

Bluemle, J.P., J.M. Sabel, and W. Karlen, 2001, Rate and magnitude of past global climate changes, in Gerhard, Lee C., William E. Harrison, and Bernold M. Hanson, eds., 2001, Geological Perspectives of Global Climate Change: AAPG Studies in Geology #47, Tulsa, OK, p. 193-212. 

Bond, Gerard, Bernd Kromer, Juerg Beer, Raimund Muscheler, Michael N. Evans, William Showers, Sharon Hoffmann, Rusty Lotti-Bond, Irka Hajdas, and Georges Bonani, 2001, Persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate during the Holocene: Science, v. 294, Issue 5549, p. 2130-2136. 

Broecker, W.S., 2001, Was the Medieval Warm Period global?: Science, v. 291, p. 1497-1399. 

Carslaw, K.S., R.G. Harrison, and J. Kirby, 2002, Cosmic rays, clouds, and climate: Science, v. 298, p. 1732-1737. 

Conway, H., B.L. Hall, G.H. Denton, A.M. Gades, and E.D. Waddington, 1999, Past and future grounding-line retreat of the West Antarctic ice sheet: Science, v. 286, p. 280-283. 

Crisci, A, B. Gozzini, F. Meneguzzo, S. Pagliara, and G. Maracchi, 2002, Extreme rainfall in a changing climate: regional analysis and hydrological implications in Tuscany: Hydrological Processes, v. 16, p. 1261-1274. 

Daly, John L., 2000, The ‘Hockey Stick’: A new low in climate science: http://www.john-daly.com/hockey/hockey.htm 

Davis, John C., and Geoffrey Bohling, 2001, The search for patterns in ice-core temperature curves, in Gerhard, Lee C., William E. Harrison, and Bernold M. Hanson, eds.,2001, Geological Perspectives of Global Climate Change: AAPG Studies in Geology #47, Tulsa, OK, p. 213-230. 

Doran, Peter T., John C. Priscu, W. Berry Lyons, John E. Walsh, Andrew G. Fountain, Diane M. McKnight, Daryl L. Moorhead, Ross A. Virginia, Diana H. Wall, Gary D. Clow, Christian H. Fritsen, Christopher P. McKay, and Andrew N. Parsons, 2002, Antarctic climate cooling and terrestrial ecosystem response: Nature, v. 415, p. 517-520. 

Energy Information Administration, 1998, Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U. S. energy markets and economic activity: Energy Information Administration SR/OIAF/98-03, 227 p. 

Esper, Jan, Edward R. Cook, Fritz H. Schweingruber, 2002, Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability: Science, v. 295, p. 2250-2253. (See also: Mann and Hughes’ critique and Cook and Esper’s response, Science, v. 296, p. 848-849.) 

Ewing, M., and W. Donn, 1956, A theory of ice ages: Science, v. 123, p. 1061-1065. 

Fan, S., M. Gloor, J. Mahlman, S. Pacala, J. Sarmiento, T. Takahashi, and P. Tans, 1998, A large North American carbon sink implied by atmospheric and oceanic carbon dioxide data and models: Science, v. 282, p. 442-446. 

Fischer, H., M. Wahlen, J. Smith, D. Mastoianni, and B. Deck, 1999, Ice core records of atmospheric CO2 around the last three glacial terminations: Science, v. 283, p.1712-1714. 

Flawn, Peter T., 2006, The Compass, v. 79, p.19. 

Friis-Christensen, E, and K. Lassen, 1991, Length of the solar cycle: an indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate: Science, v. 254, p. 698-700. 

Gerhard, Lee C., 2004, Climate change: Conflict of observational science, theory, and politics: AAPG Bulletin, v. 88, p. 1211-1220.  

Gerhard, Lee C., William E. Harrison, and Bernold M. Hanson, eds., 2001, Geological Perspectives of Global Climate Change: AAPG Studies in Geology #47, 373 p. 

Gerhard, Lee C., and William E. Harrison, 2001, Distribution of oceans and continents: A geological constraint on global climate variability, in Gerhard, Lee C., William E. Harrison, and Bernold M. Hanson, eds., 2001, Geological Perspectives of Global Climate Change: AAPG Studies in Geology #47, Chapter 3, p. 51-82. 

Gulev, S.K., O. Zolina, and S. Grigoriev, 2001, Exratropical cyclone variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data: Climate Dynamics, v. 17, p. 795-809. 

Hieb, M., 2003, Global warming: A closer look at the numbers, in Hieb, M. and Hieb, H., 2003, Global Warming: A Chilling Perspective: http://www.clearlight.com/~mhieb/WVFossils/Ice_Ages.html; accessed 2/14/06  

Hong, Y.T., H.B. Jiang, T.S. Liu, L.P. Zhou, J. Beer, H.D. Li, X. T. Leng, B. Hong, and X.G. Qin, 2000, Response of climate to solar forcing recorded in 6000-year delta 18O time series of Chinese peat cellulose: The Holocene, v. 10, p. 1-7. 

Houghton, J.T., Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C.A. Johnson, eds., 2001, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, NY, 881 p. 

Hoyt, D.V., and K.H. Schatten, 1997, The Role of the Sun in Climate Change: Oxford University Press, New York, 279 p. 

Hoyt, D.V., 2007, Personal communication. 

Hu, F.S., E. Ito, T.A. Brown, B.B. Curry, and D.R.Engstrom, 2001, Pronounced climatic variations in Alaska during the last two millennia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA, v. 98, p. 10,552-10,556. 

Hu, F.S., D. Kaufman, S. Yoneji, D. Nelson, A. Shemesh, Y. Huang, J. Tian, G. Bond, B. Clegg, and T. Brown, 2003, Cyclic variation and solar forcing of Holocene climate in the Alaskan Subarctic: Science, v. 301, p. 1890-1893. 

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2001, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 

Jenkins, David A., 2001, Potential impacts and effects of climate change, in Gerhard, Lee C., William E. Harrison, and Bernold M. Hanson, eds., 2001, Geological Perspectives of Global Climate Change: AAPG Studies in Geology #47, Chapter 3, p. 337-360. 

Keeling, C.D., R.B. Bacastow, A.F. Carter, S.C. Piper, T.P. Whorf, M. Heimann, W.G. Monk, and H. Roeloffzen, 1989, A Three-dimensional model of atmospheric Co2 transport based on observed winds: 1. Analysis of observational data, in D.H. Peterson, ed., Aspects of Climate Variability in the Pacific and Western Americas: Geophysical Monograph 55, p. 165-236. 

Keeling, C.D., T.P. Whorf,  M. Wahlen, and J. van der Plicht, 1995, Interannual extremes in the rate of rise of  
atmospheric carbon dioxide since 1980, Nature, v. 375, p. 666-670. 
Keeling, C.D., and T.P. Whorf, 1996, Atmospheric CO2 records from sites in the SIO air sampling network, in 
Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge 
National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. 

Khilyuk, L.F., and G.V. Chilingar, 2003, Global warming: Are we confusing cause and Previous HiteffectNext Hit?: Energy Sources, v. 25, p. 357-370. 

Khilyuk, L.F., and G.V. Chilingar, 2004, Global warming and long-term climatic changes: a progress report: Environmental Geology, v. 46, p. 970-979.  

Khodri, M., Y. Leclalnche, G. Ramstein, P. Braconnot, O. Marti, and E.Cortijo, 2001, Simulating the amplification of orbital forcing by ocean feedbacks in the last glaciation: Nature, v. 410, p. 570-574. 

Koren, I., Y.J. Kaufman, L.A. Remer, and J.V. Martins, 2004, Measurements of the Previous HiteffectNext Hit of Amazon smoke on inhibition of Cloud Formation: Science, v. 303, p. 1342-1345. 

Kotov, Sergey, 2001, Near-term climate prediction using ice core data from Greenland, in Gerhard, Lee C., William E. Harrison, and Bernold M. Hanson, eds., 2001, Geological Perspectives of Global Climate Change: AAPG Studies in Geology #47, Chapter 3, p. 305-316. 

Lamb, H. H., 1995, Climate, History, and the Modern World, 2nd Edition: Routledge, NY, 433 p. 

Labitzke, K., H. van Loon, 1988, Associations between the 11-year solar cycle, the QBO, and the atmosphere: I. The troposphere and stratosphere in the northern hemisphere in winter: Journal of Atmospheric and Terrestrial Physics, v. 50, p. 197-206. 

Ma, Z., H. Li, M. Xia, T. Ku., Z. Peng, Y. Chen, and Z. Zhang, 2003, Paleotemperature changes over the past 3000 years in eastern Beijing, China: A reconstruction based on Mg/Sr records in a stalagmite: Chinese Science Bulletin, v. 48, p. 395-400. 

MacKenzie, F.T., 1998, Our changing planet: An introduction to earth system science and global environmental change: Upper Saddle River, New Jersey, Prentice-Hall, Inc., 486 p.

Mann, M.E., R.S. Bradley, and M.K. Hughes, 1999, Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 26, no. 6, p. 759-762. 

McHarg, Ian, 1969, Design with Nature: Natural History Press, 197 p. 

McIntyre, Stephen, and Ross McKitrick, 2003, Corrections to the Mann et. al. (1998) proxy data base and Northern Hemispheric average temperature series: Energy & Environment, v. 14, no. 6, p. 751-771, October 26, 2003.  

McIntyre, Stephen, and Ross McKitrick, 2005, Hockey sticks, principal components, and spurious significance: Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L03710, doi: 10.1029/2004GL021750 

Moberg, Anders, Wibjörn Karlén, et al., 2005, Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data: Nature, v. 433, no. 7026, p. 613-617, February 10, 2005  

Moore, Peter D., Bill Chaloner, and Philip Stott, 1996, Global Environmental Change: Blackwell Science, Oxford, England, 244 p. 

Naish, T.R., K.J. Woolfe, P.J. Barrett, G.S. Wison, C. Atkins, S.M. Bohaty, C.J. Bucker, M. Claps, F.J. Davey, G.B. Dunbar, A.G. Dunn, C.R. Fielding, F. Florindo, M.J. Hannah, D.M. Harwood, S.A. Henrys, L.A. Krissek, M. Lavelle, J. van der Meer, W.C. McIntosh, F. Niessen, S. Passchier, R.D. Powell, A.P. Roberts, L. Sagnotti, R.P. Scherer, C.P. Strong, F. Talarico, K.L. Verosub, G. Villa, D.K. Watkins, P.N. Webb, and T. Wonik, 2001, Orbitally induced oscillations in the East Antarctica ice sheet at the Oligocene/Miocene boundary: Nature, v. 413, p. 719-723. 

National Research Council, 2000, Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change: National Academy Press, Washington D.C., 85 p. 

Paulson, D.E., H.C. Li, and T.L. Ku, 2003,Climate variability in central China over the last 1270 years revealed by high resolution stalagmite records: Quaternary Science Reviews, v. 22, p. 691-701. 

Pekarek, Alfred, 2001, Solar forcing of Earth’s climate, in Gerhard, Lee C., William E. Harrison, and Bernold M. Hanson, eds., 2001, Geological Perspectives of Global Climate Change: American Association of Petroleum Geologists Studies in Geology #47, Tulsa, OK, p. 19-34. 

Petit, J.R., J. Jouzel, D. Raynaud, N.I. Barkov, J.M. Barnola, I. Basile, M. Bender, J. Chappellaz, J. Davis, G. Delaygue, M. Delmotte, V.M. Kotlyakov, M. Legrand, V.M. Lipenkov, C. Lorius, L. Pépin, C. Ritz, E. Saltzman, and M. Stievenard, 1999, Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica: Nature, 3 June 1999. 

Phillips, Tony, 2006, http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10may_longrange.htm?list3134 (5/10/2006). 

Reid, G.C., 1991, Solar total irradiance variation and the global sea surface temperature record: Journal of Geophysical Research v. 96, p. 2835-2844. 

Robinson, Arthur B., Sallie L. Baliunas, Willie Soon, and Zachary W. Robinson, 1998, Environmental effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide: Petition Project, La Jolla, CA. 

Royer, D.L., R.A. Berner, I.P. Montanez, N. J. Tabor, and D.J. Beerling, 2004, CO2 as a primary driver of Phanerozoic climate: GSA Today, v. 14, p. 4-10. 

Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, G.A. Meehl, M.F. Wehner, C. Mears, M. Schabel, F.J. Wentz, C. Ammann, J. Arblaster, T. Bettge, W.M. Washington, K.E. Taylor, J.S. Boyle, W. Bruggemann, and C. Doutriaux, 2003, Influence of satellite data uncertainties on the detection of externally forced climate change: Science: v. 300, p. 1280-1284. 

Scotese, C.R., 2001, Atlas of Earth History, v. 1, Paleogeography, PALEOMAP Project, Arlington, Texas, 52 p. 
Also http://www.scotese.com/earth.htm. 

Sharma, Mukul, 2002, Variations in solar magnetic activity during the last 200,000 years: Is there a Sun-climate connection?: Earth and Planetary Science Letters, v. 199, p. 459-472. 

Shaviv, Nir J., and Jan Veizer, 2003, Celestial driver of Phanerozoic climate?: GSA Today, v. 13, no. 7, p. 4-10. 

Sherwood, Keith, and Craig Idso, 2004, The canary in the coal mine: singing a song of something...but certainly not CO2: Editorial Commentary, CO2 Science Magazine, v. 7, no. 10, 10 March 2004.

Siegenthaler, U., and H. Oeschger, 1987, Biospheric CO2 emissions during the past 200 years reconstructed by Previous HitdeconvolutionTop of ice core data: Tellus, v. 39B(1-2), p. 140-154. 

Siegenthaler, U., T. Stocker, E. Monin, D. Luthi, J. Schwander, B. Stauffer, D. Raynaud, J-M. Barnola, H. Fischer, V. Masson-Delmotte, and J. Jouel, 2005, Stable carbon cycle-climate relationship during late Pleistocene: Science, v. 310, p. 1313-1317. 

Solanki, S.K., and M. Fligge, 2000, Reconstruction of past solar irradiance: Space Science Review, v. 94, p. 127-138.

Soon, W., S. Baliunas, S. B. Idso, K. Y. Kondratyev, and E. S. Posmentier, 2001, Modeling climatic effects of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions: unknowns and uncertainties: Climate Research, v. 18, p. 259-275. 

Soon, W., S.L. Baliunus, A.B. Robinson, and Z.W. Robinson, 2001, Global warming – a guide to the science: Risk Controversy Series 1, The Fraser Institute, Vancouver, 62 p. 

Soon, Willie, Sallie Baliunas, Craig Idso, Sherwood Idso, and David Legates, 2003, Reconstructing climatic and environmental changes of the past 1000 years: A reappraisal: Energy and Environment, v. 14, issues 2&3, p. 233-296. 

Starkel, L., 2002, Change in the frequency of extreme events as the indicator of climatic change in the Holocene (in fluvial systems): Quaternary International, v. 91, p. 25-32.  

Tsiropoula, G., 2003. Signatures of solar activity variability in meteorological parameters: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, v. 65, p. 469– 482, (http://zeus.nascom.nasa.gov/~bfleck/jastp_publ.pdf). 

Vail, P.R., R.M. Mitchum, Jr., and S. Thompson, III, 1977, Seismic stratigraphy and global changes of sea level: Part 4. Global cycles of relative changes of sea level: Section 2. Application of seismic reflection configuration to stratigraphic interpretation, in Seismic Stratigraphy—Applications to Hydrocarbon Exploration: AAPG Memoir 26, p. 83-97. 

Zahn, Rainer, 2002, Milankovitch and climate: The orbital code of climate change: JOIDES Journal, v. 28, no. 1, p. 17-22.

 

 

Return to top.