Tips for Success
in High-Risk Exploration
: The Tangguh Experience*
By
James D. Robertson1
Search and Discovery Article #70019 (2006)
Posted August 1, 2006
*Oral presentation at AAPG Annual Convention, Houston, Texas, April 9-12, 2006: AAPG Forum: Winning the Oil End Game: The Future of Hydrocarbon Resources in Our Global Economy, April, 12, 2006
Click to view
presentation in PDF format.
1Rannoch Petroleum LLC, Fort Worth, TX ([email protected])
Abstract
The basic
methodologies to select plays, generate prospects, analyze risk, conduct
operations and make decisions are fundamentally no different in high-risk
exploration
than in
exploration
in general. However, since high-risk strongly
correlates with lack of knowledge of the geology, there are a few particular
guidelines that
exploration
teams can follow to improve the likelihood of
success in high-risk ventures. This paper outlines these guidelines and
illustrates their value using as an example the Tangguh gas discovery – a
high-risk, high-reward
exploration
play successfully pursued in eastern
Indonesia in the 1990s. Among the guidelines are the following. (1)
Differentiate between weak petroleum systems and those that merely are poorly
understood. A basin or sub-basin with verified hydrocarbon flows to the surface
during well testing is worthy of further investigation even if no significant
hydrocarbon pools have been developed. (2) Use petroleum geochemistry as a
critical
exploration
technology. Modern geochemical analyses of rock and fluid
samples can lead directly to new play concepts and to insights that reduce
exploration
risk. (3) Meld high-risk wildcatting with a lower-risk alternate
outcome. If modest successes can be monetized to at least recoup
exploration
cost, a company can keep funding high-risk
exploration
while waiting for a major
discovery. (4) Accept that land holdings may be rendered sub-optimal by geologic
surprises, but have confidence that
exploration
knowledge often can overcome an
adverse license position. (5) Recognize that
exploration
success when geology is
highly uncertain is usually achieved after a sequence of events, not just one
event, so a company must assemble an outstanding
exploration
team that can
execute the
exploration
process perfectly. An unbroken chain of correct insights
and decisions is far more likely to flow from a skillful and motivated
multidisciplinary team than from one individual.
Selected Figures
Summary of the Tips
n Study charge first to refine search.
n
View
geochemistry as a critical exploration
tool equal to geology and
geophysics
.
n Drill with alternate outcomes as protection.
n Analyze downhole pressures extensively.
n
Rely
on exploration
knowledge to overcome land problems.
n
Deploy expert exploration
teams that can link correct insights together.
n Appreciate that the big fields are not always found first.