Consumption as an Indicator of the Wealth
of Nations (Figures 1 and
2)
Figure 1. Per capita income vs. per capita
oil consumption (bbl/yr) (by country), highlighting the world’s 15
largest economies.
U.S. has the highest income and energy
consumption.
Figure 2. Energy use per unit of gross
domestic product (MBTU/$), 1850-2000, by U.K., U.S., Japan, and
developing world. Source – Professor Michael Economides.
Categories of Energy Use
(Figure 3)
Current worldwide consumption is as follows:
•Oil 40%
•Natural Gas 24%
•Coal 22%
•Nuclear 7%
•Renewables 7%
We rely on hydrocarbons today, and
“alternative sources” provide for only a small part of our needs.
Will our pattern of energy use change?
Economics and technology will determine the future.
Figure 3. Categories of energy use and energy
sources, showing that fossil fuels provide of 85% of U.S. energy.
The New
Energy Economy
Historically, the sequence of the dominant
source of energy (Figure 4) has been / is:
• Wood (1800s)
• Coal
• Oil
• Natural Gas
• Hydrogen (envisioned)
The emerging “hydrogen economy” is better
characterized as a “fuel cell economy” that will run on natural gas--i.e.,
a “natural gas economy.”
The different dominant sources represent
changes in carbon content, with high carbon content in wood and coal,
medium in oil, low in natural gas, to zero in hydrogen.
The changes in dominant source are
represented by corresponding progressive increases in:
• Cleanliness
• Energy intensity
• Technological
sophistication
Figure 4. Changes in dominant energy sources,
with hydrogen as the envisioned source for the new energy economy.
Energy Sources through Time
(Figure 5)
Figure 5.
Percentages of total energy market, according to source, 1850 to 1990
and projected to 2050. Source--Marchetti and Nakicenovic, 1994.
Wind Energy
(Figure 6)
• The most frequently mentioned renewable
source of energy is wind power.
• The critical problem with wind power is the
overwhelming dependence on geography.
Figure 6.
Map of average wind power in the United States, showing moderate to
excellent potential in the Plains States primarily.
Solar Energy
(Figure 7)
• Again, the critical problem with solar
energy is the overwhelming dependence on geography.
• Two types of solar energy have been
envisioned: direct thermal uses for homes / office buildings and power
generation. The first is obvious; the second is far more complex and
challenging.
• Solar energy represents a highly diffuse
form of energy.
Figure 7.
Average daily solar radiation in the United States, with best potential
as an energy source in the west, exclusive of the northern tier of
states.
Geothermal Energy
(Figures 8,
9, 10, and
11)
Figure 8. Schematic section of a geothermal
reservoir, with rainwater from the mountains moving downward in the
subsurface along faults to a zone of hot rock, where the water is heated
and then migrates upward across strata.
Figure 9. Schematic diagram of basic well
array in production of geothermal energy, in which water is injected
into zone of hot rock to be later extracted from a production well.
Figure 10. U.S. Geothermal Potential (power
plants, direct use, and heat pumps).
Figure 11. Growth in U.S. geothermal power,
showing substantial growth until about 1990, after which growth has been
slight. Production is now about 3,000 MWe/year.
Biomass to Bioenergy
(Figure 12)
Figure 12. Diagram of biomass to bioenergy,
showing a range of source materials for biofuels and energy services.
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Other Energy Sources
China’s Magnetic-Levitation Train
(Figure 13)
Figure 13. The magnetically levitated
(no friction) trains have an advantage over conventional and high-speed
trains by eliminating the wheel/rail friction to obtain higher speeds
and by lowering maintenance costs. The basic idea of a MAGLEV train is
to levitate it with magnetic fields so there is no physical contact
between the train and the rails (guideways).
Nuclear Energy
(Figures 14 and
15)
Figure 14. Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant,
operated by Pacific Gas & Electric
Company, has 2 units on 750 acres in San Luis Obispo County, California.
Construction of the units may have been the longest in U.S. history, at
15 and 16 years, due to regulatory concern for its ability to withstand
seismic activity. Operation began in 1984. The combined capacity of the
two units is 2,160 net MWe. Cooling water for the units is obtained from
the Pacific Ocean.
Figure 15. South Texas Nuclear Power Plant,
located 90 miles southwest of Houston in Matagorda County, with two
units, has a capacity of 2,500 megawatts, which is sufficient energy to
supply more than a million residences. It is jointly owned by the
municipal utilities of San Antonio and Austin and two generating
companies.
Coal
Coal is America’s most abundant energy source
(Figures 16 and 17).
Figure 16. Peabody’s 75 Million Ton Per-Year
North Antelope Rochelle Mine, which began operation in 1983, is
America’s largest coal mine. It is located in southeast Campbell County,
Wyoming, in the Powder River Basin. The coal is sub-bituminous, with
8,800 BTU/lb. Sulfur is 0.23%; moisture is 28%, and ash is 4.6%. The
seam is 65 feet thick, and recoverable reserves are estimated to be
1,375 million tons.
Figure 17. U.S. fuel resources and
electricity fuel sources. Coal and gas represent 95% of U.S. fuel
resources and 68% of electricity fuel sources.
Hydrogen / Fuel Cell (Figures
18 and 19)
Hydrogen is everywhere. But it has to be
extracted from fossil fuels (Natural Gas) or water.
“Making
hydrogen with fossil fuels and nuclear power is like making a nicotine
patch that’s carcinogenic”--Dan Becker Sierra Club
• In short, you need Energy to get Energy.
Figure 18. Coleman Powermate “Air Gen.”
One way to insure against power outages is with the use of a
backup power system. Portable generators range from 1,500 to 12,000
watts.
Figure 19. HydroGen3, demonstrating GM’s fuel
cell technology. GM's HydroGen3 is a fuel-cell vehicle that uses
liquid hydrogen; it has run on public roads in Japan.
Its range is some
170 miles, and top speed is 100 mph.
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Is the World
Running out of Oil and Gas?
From “known sources” alone, the world, with
about 5,800 BBE estimated ultimate recovery (Figure 20), may have 8 to 9
decades of oil and gas available. There are reasons to suggest that this
time frame is too conservative.
Figure 20. World’s ultimate recovery of oil
and natural gas (1997) (Billions of Barrels or equivalent). For oil,
3,300 BB; for gas, 2,490BBE. Source--Schollnberger,
1998.
Does the world have enough resources?
Each day the world consumes:
•78 million barrels of oil
•275 bcf of gas (47 million barrels oil
equivalent)
At current consumption levels, from Proved
Reserves and Field Growth alone, oil supply can last for 53 years •and
gas supply for 60 years. If half of the “undiscovered resources” are
eventually converted to “proven reserves,” oil can last for 71 years and
gas for 92 years.
Potential in “Unconventional” Resources
Although “Heavy Oil” and “Tar Sands” have
been included in “Resources” in the past, new technology and current
economics are moving large volumes to “Reserves.” In 2002, Oil and Gas
Journal added 175 billion barrels to Canadian reserves
from Athabasca sands (Figure 21). Canada now has more reserves
than Iraq.
•The Orinoco heavy sands in Venezuela may
also have as much oil as the Canadian sands.
Natural Gas Proved Reserves, Supply, and
Consumption (Figures 22,
23, and
24)
Figure 22. Natural gas proved reserves.
At
the end of 2000, natural gas proved reserves were estimated to be 5,304
trillion cubic feet. The six countries with more reserves than the
United States (with 167 TCF) are Russia (1,700 TCF), Iran (812 TCF),
Qatar (394 TCF), Saudi Arabia, and U.A.E. Source: BP Statistical Review
of World Energy, June 2001.
Figure 23. Plot of U.S. and Canada gas
supply, 1990 to 2010, without any drilling or development.
Under those
circumstances, U.S. gas supply would decrease sharply in this decade.
Figure 24. Various forecasts of U.S. natural
gas consumption. For 2010, the range is from about 28 TCF to 40 TCF.
Source – Professor Michael Economides.
The Age of Energy Gases
• Natural gas will rise toward global
predominance of the energy markets.
• It will provide a natural transition to the
hydrogen economy.
• Hydrogen-based economy will provide for
environmentally sustainable economic growth.
Accelerating US Decline Rates
(Figure 25)
Figure 25. U.S. natural gas production
history, showing a 27% decline rate in 2002. Source--EOG Resources, Inc.
Unconventional Gas Classification
• Tight Gas Sands
• Coalbed Methane
• Devonian Shale
• Natural Gas Hydrates
The first three are produced today. Natural
gas hydrates, with perhaps the largest volume in place, form a
considerable future challenge.
Gas Hydrates
(Figures 26 and
27)
Gas hydrate resource may extend the supply
for a very long time.
•World’s resource of gas hydrates may be as
much as 700,000 trillion cubic feet. Production technology does
not yet exist, but there is no reason to believe that it would not be
there in 25 to 30 years. But it is
never too early to plan for transition……
Figure 26. Resources of mineral energy,
showing that only a modest percentage of the potential of natural gas
hydrate represents almost 75% of the total resources.
Figure 27. Map of discovered gas hydrate
deposits. Source--Professor Michael Economides.
Oil and Gas Reserves / Resource Estimates
(Figures 28,
29, and 30)
Figure 28. Access to oil
and gas reserves
constrained, illustrated by showing reserves held by Russian companies
(17%), reserves with full access (7%), those held by national oil
companies with equity access (6%), and those held by the national oil
companies with no equity access (70%). Source--PFC Upstream Competition
Service and BP.
Figure 29. Map of resource estimates, with
restricted areas, in the United States (48 conterminous states).
Source--IPAA.
Figure 30. Estimates of 21st
century world energy supplies (billion barrels oil equivalent), with
estimated energy demand and world population.
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AAPG’s Role through Year 2100
• Lifelong partnership with members.
• Ethics must be a pillar of behavior for
members.
• Promote exploration and production
technology improvements for natural gas.
• Teach combining business with science.
• Ongoing collaboration with sister
societies.
Conclusions
•What will be the primary ENERGY SOURCE in
the future?
• Answer: Hydrocarbons – for a long time.
•Who is going to be looking for NEW reserves
in the future?
• Answer: You and I: – for as long as we want to work.
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