PLATT, JEREMY B.1, JAMES M.
FAY2, STEPHEN L. THUMB3, A. MICHAEL SCHAAL3, FRANK
C. GRAVES4, and LYNDA S. BORUCKI4
1EPRI, Palo Alto, CA
2Gas Research Institute (GRI), Chicago, IL
3Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc., Arlington, VA
4The Brattle Group, Cambridge, MA
Abstract: Possible Impacts of Electric Restructuring on Gas Use for Power Generation
Electric industry restructuring is proceeding rapidly in many states, yet impacts on the generation mix and thus fuels used for power generation are likely to be modest. The principal reason is that the power industry is highly heterogeneous. Generation units have typically been built close to load centers, taking advantage of local fuel economies, while transmission transfer capabilities between regions are limited. These conclusions are based on systematic study by EPRI and GRI of regional generation costs and transmission links. The objective has been to ascertain "big picture" effects, such as whether coal may displace more costly natural gas generation. Still, substantial new gas-fired capacity is being added, and in some regions (New England, Texas) the numbers of proposed projects is astronomic. Actual growth will be limited by power price feedbacks as well as gas supply and delivery limitations.
While substantial shifts in fuel use from electric
industry restructuring alone appear unlikely, numerous "wild cards" affect
this conclusion. One is whether restructuring will indeed lead to lower
electricity prices. Most important over the long term is the added effect
of heightened environmental pressures on coal generation. Impacts on coal
and nuclear
generation are mixed, with some units becoming more competitive,
others retiring, and replacement capacity coming from a variety of sources.
Quantitative findings on these inter-relationships will be summarized and
compared to results from other studies.
AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90928©1999 AAPG Annual Convention, San Antonio, Texas